More than a decade and a half of “Austerity Britain” and the global economic legacy of Covid have left us Brits ground-down and downbeat. Can we even remember when times were actually Good? Reasonable lament, but how many of us remember when it was truly awful?
Many of our team at Waypoint were still collecting pocket money from their parents when America last properly sneezed, triggering the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. We then spiralled into the Global Economic Crisis that we’re still paying for today. We’re through it, but in its jaws, life was truly awful.
We follow the cardinal rule of saying nothing unless you have something positive to say, but this needs saying regardless. The global advertising and marketing services industry is a very tightly-knit family and often very inward-looking. Of course we have to be constantly innovating to respond to Gen AI and predict the next media revolution, but more importantly this industry sails on the winds of the wider global economy.
It’s way above our pay grade to play Economist, but when consumers feel threatened they stop spending and brands stop marketing. The industry generally bounces quickly, but it never escapes, and if America has just sneezed again the world will catch a nasty cold.
Whilst the falling US dollar and US stock markets are a double whammy for American businesses, this may present a window of opportunity for European businesses and investors. By contrast, the Middle East relentlessly powers on and China bides its time.
Whilst we’re patently not the Economist, we do know a bit about M&A and today’s reality presents a complex M&A environment and therefore opportunities. Post Lehmans, US M&A activity plummeted, with deal volume dropping by nearly a third, bringing five years of growth to an abrupt halt. In 2025 US dealmaking is off to its worst start in a decade. In January, M&A volumes dropped by nearly 30% year-on-year and in dollar terms was down 18%. Although this might suggest we’re risking a re-run of 2008, it’s not quite the same story. Back then, tech was big, but now it’s everything.
This general world view masks specific opportunities, however. Despite bloody regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions, major Gulf economies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue to drive investment and M&A. Despite regional instability, government-led projects like Saudi’s Vision 2030 keep parts of the market buoyant, whilst sovereign wealth funds also pursue cross-border investments, expanding their global reach.
It might be stretching the analysis to claim that a weaker dollar and resurgent European stock markets mean that UK businesses can now look for M&A targets in the US, but these conditions are rare and merit consideration. The immediate outlook offers European agencies a slender window to strengthen their position, but windows always close. Global markets remain deeply interconnected, and history shows that economic turbulence rarely respects borders for long.
Whether this is a full-blown sneeze or a passing sniffle remains to be seen. Recognising the situation, keeping our heads up and looking for these fleeting opportunities amidst all the challenges is incumbent on us all.
